Considering Kyle Larson’s stature among racing’s elite, maybe the premise here is inaccurate.
After all, there may be a more concise list of reasons Larson won’t win a second NASCAR Cup Series championship than the litany of data in support of his chances over the next 10 races.
It’s an index of enough bullet points to make Hammurabi blush.
But that’s not the name of this game. We’re here to identify the factor likely to weigh heaviest in a potential run to the big trophy waiting at the end of the race at Phoenix Raceway on Nov. 10.
So, why will Larson hoist the Bill France Cup?
Well, Hendrick Motorsports vice chairman Jeff Gordon, a four-time Cup champion himself, knows a thing or two about winning titles. So, what does he think?
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Kyle Larson will seek his second NASCAR Cup Series
Championship with Hendrick Motorsports with his first coming in 2021. |
“When they’ve had great speed and execute, I don’t think there’s a better team bringing a bigger threat than they are,” Gordon said.
And certainly, the numbers back that up.
Yeah, we get it. Larson’s got great stats. That’s what you’re telling us?
Well, in fairness, it’s a little more in-depth than that. We do our research ‘round these parts, after all!
Look, we understand that if you’ve paid any attention to any form of American auto sports over the last handful of years, you likely already assume that Larson’s career numbers look pretty good.
And that would be correct. To a point, anyway.
But a quick glance at the track-by-track data may not be as overwhelming as one would think. After all, among Larson’s average finish rankings by venue, four playoff tracks remaining rank 22nd or worse and only two – Las Vegas Motor Speedway (fifth) and Phoenix (10th) are among his top 10.
And one-fifth of the postseason will be held at drafting tracks with Atlanta Motor Speedway and Talladega Superspeedway on the slate. Larson hasn’t always exactly come out of the chaos cleanly.
But the playoffs are about survival. And as Gordon points out, if Larson can just maintain through the opening two rounds, the final four venues may fall into his wheelhouse better than anyone’s.
“The most important thing that pops into my mind, especially when I look at that schedule, is he’s got to get to round three,” Gordon said. “That round is so strong for him. You’ve got Homestead(-Miami Speedway), Martinsville (Speedway) and (Las) Vegas (Motor Speedway).
“Homestead and Vegas, I think, are two of his best tracks. If he gets to that round, I feel like it’s a near lock - especially with the bonus points he brings to the rounds - to get to Phoenix.”
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Kyle Larson does a burnout after winning the 2024
Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. |
That journey will certainly include its hurdles.
For instance, since 2021, including two-plus seasons of the Next-Gen era, among all drivers that have made a Cup start at Atlanta, Larson is 41st in average finish with a mark of 23.1.
But guess who’s led the most laps at Atlanta in that same time frame? It’s Larson and it’s not close. His 291 are a full 101 more than Joey Logano in second.
Yes, things get crazy at Atlanta and Talladega. But Larson has at least one win at all the other eight tracks on the docket in just the last three-plus seasons with 12 of his 27 career victories coming at those venues.
And remember, this is a win-and-advance format, not to mention the regular season equity Larson built with 35-point cushion between himself and the playoff cutline.
So, sure, a Round of 12 that includes Talladega and the Charlotte Roval could be scary. But consider, it starts with a trip to Kansas Speedway, where Larson has won twice and led a whopping 538 laps since 2021, a figure that towers over the rest of the field with Denny Hamlin second at 175.
And on it goes. Since the start of 2021, Larson has the most or is tied for the most victories at Watkins Glen International (two), the Roval (one), Las Vegas Motor Speedway (three, nobody else with more than one) and Homestead-Miami (one). He’s led the most laps at Atlanta, Kansas, Las Vegas (602, Hamlin in second at 269) and Homestead-Miami Speedway (300, William Byron second at 159).
With the speed the No. 5 carries each week, no matter the track, it seems as if Larson, crew chief Cliff Daniels and the team have the hardest part figured out. Now, it’s just about minimizing mistakes.
“I can promise you (execution is) top of mind for Cliff Daniels and maybe also, Kyle Larson,” Gordon said. “This car, the series right now with the level of competition, there’s just no gimmes, no guarantees. You’ve got to be mistake free through as many of these races and rounds as possible if you’re going to win a championship.”
