Bubble Occupied By Heavyweights And Talented Youngsters

Chase Snapshot:

The competition for the final transfer spot to the Round of 8 is tight following Sunday’s race at Kansas. Four drivers are within seven points of each other for the final spot, including a NASCAR Sprint Cup Series champion, two Daytona 500 champions and a talented up-and-coming wheelman.

Here’s how the Chase Grid shakes out heading into Sunday’s Hellmann’s 500 Chase cutoff at Talladega Superspeedway (2 p.m. ET on NBCSN): 

1. Jimmie Johnson (clinched transfer spot with win at Charlotte), 
2. Kevin Harvick (clinched transfer spot with win at Kansas), 
3. Matt Kenseth (29 points above Austin Dillon on the cutoff line), 
4. Kyle Busch (+27), 
5. Carl Edwards (+24), 
6. Kurt Busch (+17), 
7. Martin Truex Jr. (+13), 
8. Joey Logano (tied with Austin Dillon in points, but owns tiebreaker with higher Round of 12 finish; third at Kansas), 
9. Austin Dillon (see Logano), 
10. Denny Hamlin (-6), 
11. Brad Keselowski (-7), 
12. Chase Elliott (-25).

Only Johnson and Harvick are truly safe. Just ask Kyle Busch, who was third on the Chase Grid going into Talladega in 2014, a hefty 25 points above the cutoff line, but was eliminated after a wreck relegated him to a 40th-place finish.

Below are the Talladega clinch scenarios:

Note: Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick have already clinched a spot in the Round of 8. In the scenarios below, the term "new winner" refers to a win by Joey Logano, Austin Dillon, Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski or Chase Elliott. A win by any other driver (Chase driver or field) is referred to as a 'repeat winner' in the scenarios below.

Matt Kenseth (0 Wins, 3074 Points) - Would clinch on points with 13 Points (28th and no laps led, 29th and led at least one lap, 30th and led most laps) and a new winner. If there is a repeat winner, would clinch on points with 11 Points (30th and no laps led, 31st and led at least one lap, 32nd and led most laps). With a win, would clinch a next round spot on wins.

Kyle Busch (0 Wins, 3072 Points) - Would clinch on points with 15 Points (26th and no laps led, 27th and led at least one lap, 28th and led most laps) and a new winner. If there is a repeat winner, would clinch on points with 14 Points (27th and no laps led, 28th and led at least one lap, 29th and led most laps). With a win, would clinch a next round spot on wins.

Carl Edwards (0 Wins, 3069 Points) - Would clinch on points with 18 Points (23rd and no laps led, 24th and led at least one lap, 25th and led most laps) and a new winner. If there is a repeat winner, would clinch on points with 16 Points (25th and no laps led, 26th and led at least one lap, 27th and led most laps). With a win, would clinch a next round spot on wins.

Kurt Busch (0 Wins, 3062 Points) - Would clinch on points with 25 Points (16th and no laps led, 17th and led at least one lap, 18th and led most laps) and a new winner. If there is a repeat winner, would clinch on points with 24 Points (17th and no laps led, 18th and led at least one lap, 19th and led most laps). With a win, would clinch a next round spot on wins.

Martin Truex Jr (0 Wins, 3058 Points) - Would clinch on points with 29 Points (12th and no laps led, 13th and led at least one lap, 14th and led most laps) and a new winner. If there is a repeat winner, would clinch on points with 28 Points (13th and no laps led, 14th and led at least one lap, 15th and led most laps). With a win, would clinch a next round spot on wins.

Joey Logano (0 Wins, 3045 Points) - If there is a repeat winner, would clinch on points with 41 Points (2nd and led most laps). With a win, would clinch a next round spot on wins. Could clinch on points with a new winner and help.

Austin Dillon (0 Wins, 3045 Points) - If there is a repeat winner, would clinch on points with 41 Points (2nd and led most laps). With a win, would clinch a next round spot on wins. Could clinch on points with a new winner and help.

Denny Hamlin (0 Wins, 3039 Points) - With a win, would clinch a next round spot on wins. Could clinch on points with help.

Brad Keselowski (0 Wins, 3038 Points) - With a win, would clinch a next round spot on wins. Could clinch on points with help.

Chase Elliott (0 Wins, 3020 Points) - With a win, would clinch a next round spot on wins. Could clinch on points with help.